Forecasting Follies

Today’s bike ride to Millennium Park was a blast—17 miles and I still felt full of energy, making good time without wearing myself out. Once home, I quickly started mowing the lawn to beat the rain. Just the other day, rain was predicted for late evening, but my weather app updated to show it coming in a few hours. We often joke about forecasters, but their short-term predictions are spot on. Halfway through mowing, the app gave a 30-minute warning for rain. I wrapped up just in time as the rain began. It’s not the first time the app has been a lifesaver for my outdoor plans.

Forecasting, much like weather predictions, gets more accurate the closer you are to the date. I might not know what I’ll be doing at 11:00 am in 30 days, but I’m certain about today at 11:00 am. That’s why my weekly task lists are dateless. Sure, there are fixed-time appointments, but mostly, I choose daily what to tackle. If I can’t finish everything, no problem—it rolls over to the next day. By week’s end, I’ve usually ticked off all tasks, avoiding the hassle of rescheduling due to unforeseen events.

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